GSAC Election Analysis

The "Dream's" Plan

By Khatuna Lagasidze | Edited by Veronika Malinboym #2020ParliamentaryElections

“Dream” is aiming for 52% of votes in the upcoming elections and hopes that America will not have a sharp reaction to it”- an article under this title is published in “Kviris Palitra”. In it, political scientist Khatuna Lagazidze analyzes the ratings of political parties prepared by the International Republican Institute (IRI) of the United States and the British company Survation.

The data released by the organizations, in particular, in terms of assessing the rating of the ruling party, differs significantly. According to the expert, the British company used a certain methodology and, as a result, misled the public, claiming that 52% of respondents support Dream.

“When they started to ask questions about these discrepancies, it turned out that the reasons lie in the method of counting. In other words, when the fundamentally different results, published with an interval of two days, caused a great deal of noise, the British organization explained what the matter was. But these explanations are clear to specialists only, and the majority of voters were no longer interested, the wrong figure had already settled in their memory”

Ultimately, according to Khatuna Lagazidze, judging by the data from both companies, Dream’s rating hovers around 30-33%. This indicates the inevitability of the creation of a coalition government. At the same time, the ruling party would like to avoid this and, according to Lagazidze's information, it is considering the possibility of postponing the elections - to hold them after the elections are held in the United States.

The “Dream”’s plan is to gain 52% of the votes and, consequently, establish a one-man rule, hope for Trump to get re-elected and thus, ensure that America turns a blind eye to whatever is happening in Georgia.  In regards to the  coalition government, let's divide the political spectrum into three categories: with whom “Dream” wants to create a coalition, with whom it can and with whom it does not want to, but it may be forced to. Ideologically, Dream will find it most comfortable to form a coalition with the “Alliance of Patriots” or the “Georgian March”, but any of those alternatives would completely demolish the friendly partnership between Georgia and America.

“The spectrum of political forces with whom it is possible to create a coalition without irritating America is much wider,” continues expert Khatuna Lagazidze. “These are, for example, “Lelo”, the party of (Aleko) Elisashvili, as well as those satellite parties that “Dream” created from people who left the parliamentary majority. In the third category it includes "European Georgia", which as a member of the future government coalition will be the guarantor of a pro-Western course for America and Europe”.


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